Negeri Sembilan election: Move to dissolve state assembly Anwar's ‘tit-for-tat’ response to Johor snap polls

KUALA LUMPUR: The dissolution of the Negeri Sembilan state legislative assembly on Friday (Jun 5) - which had been led by a chief minister from Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) - is a “tit-for-tat” response to an earlier move by the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition in Johor, say analysts.

They add that the snap polls in Negeri Sembilan would be used by Anwar and his Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition as a bellwether to gauge voter sentiment and chart the coalition’s path forward.  

Even so, observers say that PH’s move in Negeri Sembilan is a “calculated effort” to preempt any political momentum BN might gain in Johor’s state election, where the latter has signaled its intent to contest independently and is widely expected to secure a decisive victory. 

Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid, a political science professor at Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) told CNA that the PH leadership and Anwar were largely caught off guard by BN’s manoeuvres in Johor.

"By acting now, the PH (leadership) is attempting to balance the political narrative and timing. After the developments in Johor, PH wants to demonstrate that it cannot be bullied by an opposing side that is ostensibly a coalition partner at the federal level,” he said.

PH and BN are partners in the unity government, but ties between the two coalitions have been strained recently when 14 United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) assemblypersons in Negeri Sembilan withdrew their support in April for Chief Minister Aminuddin Harun over his handling of a crisis involving the state’s monarchy.  

UMNO is a key component party within the BN coalition.  

Ahmad Fauzi noted that Negeri Sembilan is more reflective of the national political sentiment compared to Johor. 

"This election acts as a warning to PH and Anwar Ibrahim, providing a glimpse of what to expect and proving that a test run is essential to gauge the current political landscape," he told CNA.

REACTIVE MOVE

Analysts said that PH’s decision to dissolve the Negeri Sembilan assembly more than two years before it was due was largely reactive to the political situation in Johor.

The next Negeri Sembilan state election was not initially due until November 2028 while Johor’s one was due only in June next year. 

It is the prerogative of the state’s ruler or governor to dissolve the state assemblies on the advice of the chief minister, who is typically from the state’s ruling party or coalition. Johor Chief Minister Onn Hafiz Ghazi had announced the dissolution of the state assembly on Jun 1. 

Azmi Hassan, a fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, believed that PH made a “hasty” decision in calling for snap polls in Negeri Sembilan, to preempt any political momentum BN might gain from a positive showing in Johor. 

“UMNO is a dominant force in Johor and can form the state government by themselves, but it isn’t the same in Negeri Sembilan,” he said. 

There are 56 seats in the Johor state assembly. In the last state election in March 2022, BN won 40 seats, PH won 12 seats, Perikatan Nasional (PN) won three seats, while the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance won one seat. 

Meanwhile at the August 2023 Negeri Sembilan state election, PH won 17 seats, BN won 14, and PN won five seats. At the time, PH and BN had an electoral pact to work together in the state polls.

Ahmad Fauzi echoed Azmi’s assessment, saying that PH has a stronger foothold in Negeri Sembilan than in Johor.  

“PH, especially DAP, has a better standing in Negeri Sembilan especially in the urban areas, and they might feel that they have a chance to make it fair and square (against BN) but it is still very hard to predict the outcome,” he said, referring to the Democratic Action Party (DAP), a PH component party.  

But Ahmad Fauzi said that PH’s move was a gamble that could backfire on them.   

"It is a significant risk. If BN secures a majority and PH fails to reach a new agreement with them (post elections), they could be ousted from power in the state. Ultimately, it is a political gamble, and only the election results will reveal if it was worth the risk," he said.

After BN had announced that it would be going solo in Johor on May 16 ahead of the Jun 1 announcement, leaders from PH had reacted angrily during their convention in the state the next day. 

Anwar himself had warned then that if BN decided to not collaborate in Johor, PH was ready to also contest all state poll seats not only in the southern state, but also in Negeri Sembilan, Selangor, Penang and Pahang - as well as potentially call for a snap general election. 

On Friday, Anwar said that he would have preferred Johor to delay its state election by a few months to allow the government to focus on economic recovery and addressing people’s concerns.

“We had time. I felt we should spend these two or three months fully focused on recovery efforts before holding elections. However, because Johor wanted to proceed quickly, we have had to go through the process,” he was quoted as saying by Malay Mail. 

Anwar, however, also backed the Negeri Sembilan government’s decision to dissolve the state legislative assembly, saying the move was necessary to prevent prolonged uncertainty amid a crisis involving the state’s monarchy.

Aminuddin said in a hastily arranged press conference on Thursday night that the state’s ruler, Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir, had consented to his request to dissolve the state assembly.

On Apr 27, the 14 UMNO assemblypersons withdrew their support for Aminuddin over his handling of a crisis involving the state’s monarchy, but later said that they would maintain cooperation in the state.  

The state monarchy crisis is linked to a system unique to Negeri Sembilan, where the state ruler is elected by a council of four territorial chiefs (Undangs) rather than inheriting the throne through direct hereditary succession.

While Aminuddin had said that he had received the ruler's consent for the dissolution of the state assembly, the Undangs on Friday evening said that the decision was made without their permission as the state co-rulers.

The Election Commission however said that it has received official notification of the dissolution of the state’s legislative assembly. 

TEST FOR ANWAR AND PAKATAN HARAPAN

Analysts say that the upcoming Negeri Sembilan election will also act as a barometer for PH to gauge public support, providing a better indication of how the pact and Anwar may fare in the looming national polls. 

While the general election is only due in February 2028, there have been reports that Anwar was considering the possibility of holding snap polls this year.  

Political analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi from Universiti Malaya said that the Negeri Sembilan state election would indicate if the cooperation between PH and BN is still accepted by the grassroots, specifically by UMNO’s Malay voters as well as PH’s supporters who want reforms. 

“If there is a quiet protest, spoiled votes, low turnout, or a shift to PN, it is a major warning to the Unity Government,” he said.

Anwar was sworn in as Malaysia’s 10th prime minister on Nov 24, 2022, after the 15th General Election failed to produce a clear winner and resulted in a hung parliament for the first time in Malaysia’s history.    

That led to the uneasy alliance between PH and BN. Also in the alliance are Borneo-based blocs. 

Azman Awang believed that the results from the Negeri Sembilan state election would have a “psychological effect” on the 16th General Election (GE16), for both PH and BN especially as they were likely to go against one another.   

“If PH wins comfortably, Anwar gets a new political lease of life and momentum. On the other hand, if BN wins without PH, they are likely to adopt the same strategy for the general elections. It is a test for both coalitions,” he said. 

There are 222 seats in Malaysia’s lower house, with a coalition needing to be backed by at least 112 lawmakers to form the next government.

THE BATTLEFIELD

The state election in Negeri Sembilan this time is likely to see multicornered fights, said observers, who predicted that the situation is “highly volatile”.

They also warned that a hung assembly remains a distinct possibility as coalitions fight to reach the 19-seat threshold for a majority.

Aminuddin had said that PH aimed to contest all 36 seats and had finalised seat distributions among the coalition’s components.

Azmi Hassan said that UMNO is a dominant force in Johor and are confident enough in their grassroots machinery to potentially form the next state government on their own without needing a coalition partner but it is different in Negeri Sembilan where UMNO is not as dominant.  

“It might turn out to be the status quo of where UMNO and PH might need to work together again. UMNO is more comfortable in working with PH compared to PN. The question here might be who will get more seats compared to the last state election and get to claim the position of chief minister,” he said.  

Ahmad Fauzi agreed, saying that there could be up to five cornered fights that include PH, BN, PN, PKR splinter party Bersama, and a splinter of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia belonging to a faction loyal to former federal opposition leader Hamzah Zainuddin.  

Ahmad Fauzi pointed to a scenario similar to the Sabah elections where candidates with even 30 per cent of the vote could win because of the split votes. 

The 17th Sabah state elections in November last year saw multi-cornered contests across the state: four-horse races being the minimum, and one constituency even seeing a 14-way battle.

“If there are no pre-election negotiations to unite two or three factions, it is going to be a wide open contest and the possibility of a hung election is there," said Ahmad Fauzi of the upcoming Negeri Sembilan polls.